Molson Coors Cuts 2026 Outlook as Q3 Beer Volumes Fall 4.9%

Molson Coors Beverage Company lowered its full-year 2026 forecast on Thursday after third-quarter beer volumes dropped and higher costs squeezed profit at the maker of Coors Light and Miller Lite.

Net sales for the quarter fell 1.6% to $2.93 billion, or 1.2% in constant currency. Net income attributable to the company was $271.5 million, or $1.45 a diluted share, compared with a loss of $2.93 billion a year earlier, when it booked a $3.65 billion goodwill impairment charge. Underlying earnings were $1.46 a share, down 12.6% from $1.67, and underlying pretax income dropped 17.4% in constant currency to $349.0 million.

Both figures came in just below Wall Street forecasts. Six analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research had expected earnings of $1.47 a share, and four expected adjusted revenue of $2.94 billion, the Associated Press reported.

Volumes and costs

Brand volume fell 4.9% across the company. In the Americas it dropped 5.3%, including a 5.6% decline in the United States tied to lower volume in core and value brands and softer industry demand. Brand volume in the EMEA and APAC segment fell 3.8%, mainly in the United Kingdom. Higher net pricing and a richer sales mix added 1.8% to net sales.

Cost of goods sold per hectoliter rose 8.6%, driven by materials, logistics and manufacturing inflation, including about $30 million tied to Midwest Premium pricing. Marketing, general and administrative expenses fell 7.7% on targeted cost cuts and lower employee-related costs after restructuring.

Americas net sales slipped 1.2% to $2.23 billion, and the segment’s underlying pretax income fell 18.8% in constant currency. EMEA and APAC net sales declined 2.7% to $701.4 million, while underlying pretax income there rose 5.5% in constant currency.

Lower 2026 guidance

The Golden, Colorado, and Montréal-based brewer now expects 2026 net sales to fall 1% to 2% in constant currency, compared with a prior forecast of flat, plus or minus 1%. It sees underlying pretax income down 21% to 24%, from a previous 15% to 18% decline, and underlying earnings per share down 16% to 19%, versus 11% to 15% earlier. Underlying free cash flow is now projected at about $1.0 billion, down from $1.1 billion.

The company said the Midwest Premium should cost about $130 million more this year than last, and it pointed to macroeconomic pressure on beer drinkers and continued heavy promotions in the U.K.

“These outcomes are not yet scaled enough to offset the headwinds that we experienced in the third quarter,” President and Chief Executive Rahul Goyal said of results from the company’s Horizon 2030 strategy. Chief Financial Officer Tracey Joubert said external headwinds “intensified as the year progressed.”

Net debt stood at $5.39 billion at the end of September, or 2.53 times underlying EBITDA, up from 2.28 times a year earlier. Through nine months, operating cash flow was $1.28 billion and underlying free cash flow was $852.0 million. The company has repurchased $254.9 million of stock so far this year and paid a quarterly dividend of 48 cents a share, up from 47 cents a year earlier.

Sources: Molson Coors Beverage Company (SEC filing), Associated Press via WTOP